{"id":1003,"date":"2019-01-22T01:09:01","date_gmt":"2019-01-22T01:09:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/?page_id=1003"},"modified":"2019-01-23T01:25:16","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T01:25:16","slug":"probabilistic-life-assessment-of-fired-heater-tubes","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/?page_id=1003","title":{"rendered":"Probabilistic life assessment of fired heater tubes"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_1040\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1040\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MHR-1205.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"374\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1040\" srcset=\"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MHR-1205.png 958w, https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MHR-1205-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MHR-1205-768x574.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1040\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Refinery furnaces<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p><strong>Component:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n    <li>Fired heater tubes, fabricated from 1\u00bcCrMo steel, with over 200,000h service<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Objective:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n    <li>A life assessment to underwrite five years additional service<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Approach:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n    <li>A phased assessment, commencing with a lower-bound deterministic calculation progressing to a <a href=\"http:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/?page_id=31\">probabilistic life assessment<\/a>, using standard materials data and post-exposure test results<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_1013\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1013\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Heater-CFP.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"346\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Heater-CFP.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Heater-CFP-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Heater-CFP-768x531.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1013\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Predicted failure probabilities based on standard materials data and on PET results<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p><strong>Results:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n    <li>A conservative, code-based calculation generated life estimates considerably below the service actually achieved to date<\/li>\r\n    <li>A probabilistic calculation using standard materials properties, with a realistic distribution of rupture strength did not allow sufficient confidence to ensure secure long-term operation<\/li>\r\n    <li>Refining the probabilistic assessment by obtaining and using post-exposure stress rupture data from tube samples generated a remaining life estimate of over 50,000h at a 1% probability level<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Benefits:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n    <li>Confidence in the remaining life of the tubes, under a specified inspection and replacement plan<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Publication:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>Brear, J.M., Williamson, J. and Cane, B.J.<br \/>\r\n\u201cLife extension of high temperature process equipment\u201d<br \/>\r\nNACE Int Conf \u2018Corrosion 90\u2019, Las Vegas, April 1990 Paper 196<br \/>\r\nPublished in Materials Performance, November 1990, pp 70-75<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Component: Fired heater tubes, fabricated from 1\u00bcCrMo steel, with over 200,000h service Objective: A life assessment to underwrite five years additional service Approach: A phased assessment, commencing with a lower-bound deterministic calculation progressing to a probabilistic life assessment, using standard materials data and post-exposure test results Results: A conservative, code-based calculation generated life estimates considerably &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/?page_id=1003\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Probabilistic life assessment of fired heater tubes<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":155,"menu_order":1,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1003","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1003"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1005,"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1003\/revisions\/1005"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnbrear-plantintegrity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}